Eagle Forum Legislative Alerts

Friday, September 28, 2012

Why the polls are wrong

The presidential polls consistently show Barack Obama and Mitt Romney failing to surpass the 50% mark, and give the impression that there is are 5% of the voters who are undecided and waiting for the debates or maybe some gaffes or economic news to make up their minds.

That may be correct, but the bigger story is going to be the voter turnout. G.W. Bush benefited in 2000 and 2004 from evangelicals and other church-going Americans. Obama benefited even more in 2008 from heavy voting from African-Americans, naive and idealistic college students, and other minorities. Some people really seemed to believe that Obama's hope and change would stem cell cures for disease, peace in the middle east, and prosperity at home.

Conventional wisdom from most pollsters is that the African-Americans, welfare class, and students will again turn out heavily for Obama, while the evangelicals will refuse to vote for a Mormon. These assumptions are doubtful.

This election will be decided by which party does a better job of getting out the vote.

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