Eagle Forum Legislative Alerts

Friday, March 01, 2013

States with married women voted Republican

Steve Sailer has analyzed the data, and proposes a metric that best explains the red-blue state difference:
This metric: average years married among white women ages 18 to 44 on the 2000 Census (what I’ll call “Years Married” for short).

“Years Married” had its best won-loss record yet in 2012. Mitt Romney carried 23 of the 24 highest-ranked states. Barack Obama won 25 of the 26 lowest-ranked states.

In my chart above, the length of each state’s bar indicates the average number of years that a white woman 18-44 can expect to be married. Romney’s states are colored in the now traditional Republican red and Obama’s in Democratic blue, with Romney’s share of the two-party vote next to the name of the state.

At the top of the chart is Utah, where white women average 17.0 Years Married and Romney won 75 percent. At the bottom are Massachusetts and California.

In Massachusetts, white women average only 12.2 Years Married and Romney was beaten roughly 5 to 3.
I was surprised to see Massachusetts score so low, because it brags about having the lowest divorce rate in the U.S.. They say that they respect marriage so much that they were the first to let same-sex couples marry. But they only have a low divorce rate because much fewer of them get married in the first place.

There could be several possible causes for the above correlation. The most obvious is that the Republicans are the party of family values, and the Democrats lack a future time orientation. But maybe women turn Democrat after a divorce, or Democrats appeal to women who never want to get married in the first place.

Regardless, the Democrats will surely promote policies that get them votes, whether they realize it or not. That means anti-family incentives, such as those for divorce, out-of-wedlock births, and immigration from countries with poor family values.

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