Eagle Forum Legislative Alerts

Monday, June 17, 2013

In a Demographic Death Spiral

CBS reports:
Republicans are “in a demographic death spiral” and will fail in their effort to win the presidency if the party blocks an immigration overhaul, a leading GOP senator said Sunday.

Sen. Lindsey Graham, the South Carolina Republican who helped write a bipartisan immigration bill under debate in the Senate, said conservatives who are trying to block the measure will doom the party and all but guarantee a Democrat will remain in the White House after 2016′s election.

A Democrat also involved in developing the proposal, Sen. Robert Menendez of New Jersey, went a step further and predicted “there’ll never be a road to the White House for the Republican Party” if immigration overhaul fails to pass.
Can someone spell this out for me? The beneficiaries of this bill will not be voting in 2016. With high unemployment, very few voters will benefit from a bill to import millions of foreign workers. The super-rich like Marc Zuckerberg benefit from the cheap labor, but they vote Democrat anyway.

But if Republicans help pass an immigration amnesty bill, then millions of voters will switch from Democrat to Republican in 2016?? Please tell me who those voters are.
“After eight years of President Obama’s economic policies, and quite frankly foreign policy, people are going to be looking around,” Graham said. “But if we don’t pass immigration reform, if we don’t get it off the table in a reasonable, practical way, it doesn’t matter who you run in 2016. We’re in a demographic death spiral as a party and the only way we can get back in good graces with the Hispanic community in my view is pass comprehensive immigration reform. If you don’t do that, it really doesn’t matter who we run in my view.”

In 2012, Obama won re-election with the backing of 71 percent of Hispanic voters and 73 percent of Asian voters. A thwarted immigration overhaul could send those voting blocs more solidly to Democrats’ side in future elections.
So maybe Democrats will get 71% of Hispanics if Republicans vote for amnesty and 80% of they don't? I still don't see how that will make much difference in 2016, as about half of those Hispanics live in California or Texas, not swing states.

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