With a cloture vote on the Senate’s immigration reform bill expected next week, countless commentators have expressed the view that if Republicans don’t sign on for reform, the party is doomed at the presidential level for a generation.Steve Sailer has made similar arguments.
This is the first in a two-part series explaining why this conventional wisdom is incorrect.
1. The most salient demographic change from 2008 to 2012 was the drop in white voters.
Those countless commentators, such as Bill O'Reilly, assume that voting will be along ethnic lines, with Hispanics voting with the interests of the illegal aliens, rather than American citizens. I don't know whether that will be true or not. But there are plenty of others whose votes are up for grabs.