Eagle Forum Legislative Alerts

Monday, March 31, 2014

Difficulties about Climate Predictions

NASA has reported that there was no statistically significant rise in global temperatures last year. In fact, there hasn’t been a statistically significant rise in quite a few years. There has been no warming trend since 1997. That was 17 years ago, so some scientists are calling the last decade and a half a “pause” in global warming. In the last few years, we’ve even had cooler temperatures over the oceans than we had in the late 1990s or early 2000s.

Of course, this information sharply contradicts the hysterical global warming predictions we’ve been hearing from the left. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has estimated that the world’s average temperature would rise 0.2 degrees Celsius every decade. But if that were true, the world would be 0.3 degrees Celsius warmer than it is now. Every time we have a cold winter, we hear the tired warning that, “every year may not be warmer than the last, but every decade will be.” But the truth is that recent decades haven’t been warmer.

Global warming proponents are struggling to explain away the data. But what we are really learning is that climate is not predictable. We can’t measure air pollution, and that makes it hard to predict how or if pollution will affect the climate. Some climate scientists have suggested that the lack of warming is because excess greenhouse gases have ended up in the ocean instead of in the air, and some have suggested it’s because of natural climate cycles or solar cycles.

In other words, a lot of things control the climate. It’s just not possible to predict what the world’s temperature will be 50 years from now based on human activity. The idea that we can control the climate is ludicrous. We can’t even predict it with any accuracy.

Listen to the radio commentary here:

1 comment:

Dan Pangburn said...

All of the average global temperature anomalies reported since before 1900 were caused by NATURAL phenomena. The correlation is 95% and uses only two drivers. CO2 change is not one of them. Search using key words AGW unveiled to see the simple analysis.

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