Eagle Forum Legislative Alerts

Friday, November 27, 2015

Trump's chance is better than estimates

Conventional wisdom is that Donald Trump has very little chance, and his campaign is only serving to discredit more mainstream Republicans.

Statistician Nate Silver of 538 writes:
So, could Trump win? We confront two stubborn facts: first, that nobody remotely like Trump has won a major-party nomination in the modern era.4 And second, as is always a problem in analysis of presidential campaigns, we don’t have all that many data points, so unprecedented events can occur with some regularity. For my money, that adds up to Trump’s chances being higher than 0 but (considerably) less than 20 percent.
I think that this analysis is wrong. The Republicans nominated Mitt Romney in 2012, and Trump is the candidate most like Romney. Both are super-rich businessmen, with no Washington political experience.

Second, there is a widespread belief that our leaders are selling us out like never before. The business, media, and political elites have no loyalty to the nation-state. Barack Obama pushes his leftist policies, even when unpopular and contrary to law. Republicans have taken control of both houses of Congress, but what do they have to show for it?

Breitbart reports:
According to the Reuters survey, 58 percent Americans say they “don’t identify with what America has become.” While Republicans and Independents are the most likely to agree with this statement, even 45 percent of Democrats share this feeling.

More than half of Americans, 53 percent, say they “feel like a stranger” in their own country. A minority of Americans feel “comfortable as myself” in the country.
Trump appeals to those voters because he promises policies to benefit Americans, not the rest of the world.

When the Democrats decide that Trump is a real threat, then we will see the press demonize him. We will see a lot more articles like this one, which consists mainly of calling him a fascist over and over again. It makes more sense to argue that Obama and Clinton are fascists.

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